If McCain wins the US election, I will be very upset. Why? Partly because I am a left wing pinko, and partly because I have US$250 riding on it. That's right, I put my money where my political mouth is and bet on the intrade prediction markets. As a result I stand to gain a cool US$31 playing the stocks.
It seems as though this political betting system could use some "innovation." The odds of all the individuals mentioned as possible winners add up to more than 100.% I should be able to exploit arbitrage opportunities to rectify that. Also, I would like to short sell McCain shares. I think that at 12.7%, they are overvalued. Maybe we could introduce options trading. It certainly couldn't hurt. I mean, can you name me one occasion when exotic derivatives did harm to the financial system?
Update: Maybe I wasn't so smart after all. I bought the shares at 1AUD= US 60.8c. Now the exchange rate has improved to 68 something. I'm going to find a window ledge somewhere.
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7 comments:
That's one of the silliest things I've heard you've done. You shouldn't bet against American stupidity.
You're a genius.
I'm betting on American panic and fear as the economic policies of Mr Bush come to their natural conclusion.
And how was i supposed to know the fed would cut rates this week?
I hope that's the last time you fail to hedge your currency risk.
Congrats Sam, I was rooting for you.
Anita: Since when has it become fashionable to bash the Americans?
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